8% of GDP while the primary balance (commitment basis) recorded a surplus of 1. 1% of GDP. Inflation which has been driven by food prices, remained elevated at 40. 1% in August 2023. Poverty has worsened. The “international poverty” rate is estimated at 27% in 2022, an increase of 2. 2% points since 2021. Ghanaian households have been under pressure from high inflation and slowing economic growth.
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Recent economic developments Ghana’s economy entered a full-blown macroeconomic crisis in 2022 on the back of pre-existing imbalances and external shocks. Large financing needs and tightening financing conditions exacerbated debt sustainability concerns, shutting-off Ghana from the international market. Large capital outflows combined with monetary policy tightening in advanced economies put significant pressure on the exchange rate, together with monetary financing of the budget deficit, resulting in high inflation. These developments interrupted the post COVID-19 recovery of the economy as GDP growth declined from 5.
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In the first half of 2023, GDP growth rebounded to 3. 2% on the back of strong growth in services (6. 3%) and agriculture (6. 2%). On the other hand, the industrial sector contracted by 2. 2% as all industry sub-sectors (oil and gas, manufacturing, water and sewerage, and construction) shrank, except for mining and quarrying. First half 2023 data indicates that fiscal balance improved to a deficit of 0.
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The ruling NPP faces a tough challenge towards reelection, because of the country's ongoing economic struggles. The success of President Akufo-Addo's second term will depend on his government’s ability towards leading Ghana on the path of debt sustainability and reaching an agreement with external creditors on external debt restructuring under the IMF program.
OutlookGrowth is expected to slow further to 1. 5% in 2023 and remain muted in 2024 at 2. 8%, before returning toward its potential. The ongoing fiscal consolidation, corrective monetary policies, high inflation, interest rates, and macroeconomic uncertainties will keep private consumption and investment low. This will result in muted non-extractive growth but extractives growth is expected to be robust in the medium term thanks to new gold mines and a recovery in small-scale mining. The balance of payments is expected to continue to deteriorate in 2023, on the back of continued capital outflows, before recovering in the medium-term. Poverty is projected to worsen between now and 2025, increasing to nearly 34% (international poverty line) by 2025, consistent with a muted outlook on growth in services and agriculture and rising prices which are outpacing the income growth of those at the bottom of the distribution.
OverviewGhana sits on the Atlantic Ocean and borders Togo, Cote d'Ivoire, and Burkina Faso. Its population is about 29. 6 million (2018). In the past two decades, it has taken major strides towards democracy under a multi-party system, with its independent judiciary winning public trust. Ghana consistently ranks in the top three African countries for freedom of speech and press. President Akufo-Addo has faced a much more challenging environment during his second term He is left with 14 months to the end of term of his government, since he is term-limited he will not be running for Office again.
Community-based legitimacy for advocacy organisations ... Ghana and Kenya! Date and time 13 December 2023, 10:00 - 11:30 CET; Where Online, via Zoom; For whom Partos members and other representatives of advocacy ...
